New Year's Eve predictions - 12.31.2002
'03 bad, '04 better
When I first began writing the bigdumbHoosier series, back at the turn of 2001, I wrote some predictions. It was fun; some were pretty close, some were really really wrong. I intended to do it every year, but when 2002 came around making predictions about what was likely to happen simply didn't seem very entertaining.
New Year's Day is all about new beginnings, hope for the future, a fresh start - but, alas, I don't think things look a whole lot better than they did on New Year's Eve 2001. In fact, the economy is continuing on a downward spiral and the Bush administration has annoyed, berated and offended just about every civilized nation around the world. He's still quite popular among the minority of Americans who vote, for some reason.
2002 was marked by increases in military spending, record levels of bankruptcies, a wave of mortgage foreclosures, weak employment, erosion of traditional rights, revelations of extensive fraud in the operation of publicly held companies, even greater divides between the few super-rich and the rest of us, droughts, global warming, a serious drop in American prestige coupled with a serious drop in the dollar. There's even strain in US relations with Canada! What kind of country are we becoming, if we can't even get along with Canada?
So, here, in a nutshell, is my prediction for 2003. I predict the US economy will have its worst year since the 1930s. I predict that, despite this near collapse, the Bush administration will continue to enjoy substantial popularity, though it will drop considerably compared with 2002. By autumn of 2003 we'll begin to see signs of a recovery as Americans begin to apply their incredible creativity to finding new, and better ways to cope with the realities of the 21st century. This 'grass-roots' movement will ultimately make the agendas of both of the current political parties irrelevant.
2003 will be difficult, painful, and probably destructive as well. But it will, at last, lay the foundation for a 2004 that will begin to show the promise of the 21st century.
By mid 2004 we'll see the beginning of a 'cultural revolution' of sorts, that will, within 10 years bring some major changes - the end of the dominance of the two party system, substantial reduction in the role of oil in our economy, socialized medicine (yes, that's right), socialized insurance (why not?), a lower standard of living in terms of consumption (we're all getting sick of buying throw-away junk anyway...), but more leisure time. Life in America will become just a bit more like life in other countries around the world.
Shocking predictions? Not really, because at the core of my prediction is my belief that in the next two years we will see the broad discrediting of the neo-conservatives. Their policies, petrified by their ideology, simply don't work in the real world. The time when they could blame the bad economy on previous administrations is passing. George W. Bush, if left to himself, might even be pragmatic enough to modify his policies enough to make things better. But the core of the neo-conservative movement is not at all pragmatic; they live and will die by their ideology and Mr. Bush has yet to show that he is capable of acting independently of his neo-conservative core constituency. Meanwhile, the economy is a natural force which must be managed by practical, flexible approaches. The economy is like nature - you have to respect it, because it doesn't give a damn about you.
I just hope we can reach 2004 with a minimum of death and destruction.
